Nuclear Conflict Risk Assessment
Tools for nuclear war preparation and planning. (U.S. Based)
Do you have a plan in place for the risk of nuclear war?
This page is not about the individual specifics of surviving the breakout of nuclear conflict. I have written extensively about the particulars of such survival in a series of articles on this blog, as well as in my book Prepping For Collapse. Here I present some different information for use in planning the most important aspect of nuclear war preparedness:
Where to be when it happens. And in order to plan that all-important aspect, you need to become well versed in the science of nuclear weapons, their use, and the current military doctrines of the worlds nuclear powers. With this information you will be better equipped to make your own assessment of the dangers and threats presented to you and your area of operations.
There is a series of map-tools which will help a great deal in deciding where to situate your survival shelter or bug-out location, and also to aid you in choosing a place to relocate in the meantime while still retaining access to society. Also included is a useful reference section with links to a variety of planning and preparedness education resources available online. This includes a small link-library with some of the most important downloads. Finally, there is also information for simulating the effects of such a disaster to help you gauge the effects of a possible nuclear war in your chosen area of operations.
Threat Zone Map for the Continental United States
The below map is an interactive one of my own creation based on extensive research into verifiable foreign nuclear targets within the United States. Used in conjunction with other tools and information, it can be invaluable when seeking to identify target locations to avoid, and when establishing maps of your own showing potential risks closer in to your own area of operations. Below my own interactive map are a few static maps that are also useful for quick reference and verification purposes.
Original Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Map for U.S. Nuclear Target Areas
This map was originally created in 2015 using data from FEMA and the National Resources Defense Council.
The notation for a 2,000-warhead attack assumes a first strike by the Russians. The 500-warhead attack notations would be for a retaliatory strike in the event the United States launched first, thus limiting the Russian arsenal.
Neither possibility is good.
EFFECTS OF A FULL-SCALE NUCLEAR WAR ON THE UNITED STATES, Halcyon Maps
Map showing the locations that are most likely to get hit in a full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, and areas likely to be affected by the fallout.
Based on the data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA) and Wikipedia.
Nuclear War Simulations
Below are several different simulation tools you can use to get an idea of how a nuclear war would play out on the large scale, as well as exactly how an individual strike would affect any single area.
Princeton "PLAN A"
Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security (SGS) developed this simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets, and fatality estimates. The video is both terrifying and eye-opening.
Nuclear War Map
Nuclear War Map is an incredibly valuable and detailed nuclear war simulator. In addition to a Single-City Attack Simulator, there is also a large database of U.S. targets available, and the Large Scale Attack Simulator. This tool can be run to detail the exact events of a nuclear strike on the continental U.S., including timing, targets, and individual strike types and effects.
NUKEMAP
NUKEMap was created by Alex Wellerstein and it is probably the most detailed and customizable nuclear detonation simulator there is available to the general public. There is nothing better for running simulations for individual nuclear strikes and their effects.
Outrider
What would happen if a nuclear bomb went off in your backyard? This is another detailed sim, powered by NUKEMap, that allows you to enter your address and see the effects of various scenario strikes directly.
MissileMap
MISSILEMap is an interactive web visualization meant to aid in the understanding of information about the capabilities and consequences of missile launches, in particular nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. It allows for the graphical representation of ranges, great-circle paths, accuracy, blast damage, and probabilities of kill. It works alongside NUKEMap as another invaluable tool.
Research & Information resources
Here is a solid collection of links to some of the most detailed and up-to-date sources of information about nuclear conflict risks that the internet has to offer. Everything you need to know in order to learn about the science of nuclear weapons, the doctrines for their use, and the current threat levels, can be found here.
The Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists
Excellent collection of articles and recent news regarding developments in nuclear weapons and the possibility of conflict. Home of the “Doomsday Clock.” The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.
Outrider
Very good source of articles and information about nuclear weapons, their effects, and the policies and doctrines of nuclear war between nations. Regularly updated with news and historical content during this time when the threat of nuclear confrontation is growing globally.
NTI Nuclear Security Index
The NTI Index assesses nuclear and radiological security conditions in 175 countries and Taiwan. The various nuclear security rankings score countries and areas on a scale of 0 to 100, and creates a report for each nation.
The Atomic Archive
This website was created to help people understand the science, history, and consequences of the atomic age. The archive has a large collection of digital assets, such as original texts, eyewitness accounts, rare photographs, videos and full color maps.
The Nuclear Weapon Archive
The Nuclear Weapon Archive provides current information, technical data, and informative write-ups about nuclear weapons. It is an old-style site with an old-style UI, but don’t let the simplicity fool you, there is a wealth of information to be found here.
Arms Control Association
The Arms Control Association is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to promoting public understanding of and support for effective arms control policies. The site contains excellent news updates and articles regarding nuclear doctrines and policies from around the world.
Downloadable Resource Link Library
Here are links to several key reports, studies, books, and other resources regarding nuclear weapons, their potential use in conflicts, and current nuclear threat postures around the world. All are in PDF format and available for download. It can be a daunting task to read through so much material, but now more than ever we all need to develop a factually true understanding of nuclear weapons and the doctrine for their use. only then, with our misconceptions cleared away, can we come to see the threat for what it really is.
FEMA/U.S. Government Planning Document For Response To Nuclear Detonations
U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency guidelines and procedures book with a ton of useful information. Things that you can do, and also insights into what the government may be doing as well, in the event of a nuclear war.
FEMA Procedures For Local Responders during First 72 Hours After Nuclear Detonation
Another FEMA Guidebook, this one going into detail about first-responder actions that will/should be taken in the first 72 hours following a nuclear detonation in the United States. Used by individuals, businesses, and local officials in planning.
Scientific Study Detailing Global Ecological Effects Of A Regional Or "Limited" Nuclear War.
A good scientific study that was done to determine the global environmental effects from a regional nuclear exchange of about 100 weapons. What is also called a “Limited” exchange, such as the one brewing between India and Pakistan…
Limited Nuclear War: The 21st Century Challenge for the United States
A very, very enlightening paper that shows the recent change in strategic thinking by America’s adversarial opponents. Primarily, the idea that nuclear wars can be won because they can be kept limited. A dangerous new doctrine…
Nuclear War Survival Skills, The Original Edition From 1987, by Cresson H. Kearny
If you don’t have it, you must get it… This has always been the absolute most comprehensive guide for survival in a nuclear war situation. The newer updated version is for sale on Amazon, but this has things well covered too.
The Medical Implications Of Nuclear War, National Academy of Sciences
A very in-depth book covering medical, psychological, and environmental effects of nuclear war, from the individual level all the way to the global one.
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Assessing the Risk of Nuclear War, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
What are the risks of nuclear war in all its potential manifestations? This is not an easy question to answer, but all the arguments and information are presented here.
NTI Nuclear Security Index, Full Report For 2023, Developed by the Nuclear Threat Initiative
The NTI Index is recognized as the premier resource and tool for evaluating global nuclear and radiological security across the nations of the world, and this is the full report.
Assessing the Dangers: Emerging Military Technologies and Nuclear (In)Stability
This recent report examines four particular new technologies and their potential for weaponization, which carry dangerous consequences that expand into the nuclear realm.
Russia’s Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization
U.S. Congressional Research Report, detailing the real status and capability of the Russian Nuclear forces, as well as the changes made by Vladimir Putin in 2022 to the nation’s nuclear use doctrine. Quite the eye-opener for those who only know the media narrative…
THE U.S. NUCLEAR WAR PLAN, Natural resources Defense Council
Through the use of official databases, the Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC) has made an extensive model of nuclear conflict and the effects of nuclear weapons. This allows us to perform an in-depth analysis of the U.S. nuclear war plan known as the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP)
