The Collapse-Prep Bug Out Plan: Tactical Planning for the Worst-Case Scenario

When it comes to societal collapse on a global scale, bugging out of the danger zones represented by urban areas will definitely be the right move to make. There is just no realistic justification for trying to stay put and deal with it. You have to be ready to GTFO.

But that only applies if you are truly ready to “bug out” for real. And I don’t mean heading out into the woods to camp or moving back into your mom’s basement. I mean a real end of civilization, “I’m never going back home” kind of bug out.

To do that right, and to survive societal collapse, you need a comprehensive operations plan, and a damn good one.

Here, I have put together just that, a 5-Step Collapse-Prep Bug Out Plan. This is the framework that can serve as the foundation for creating your own plan to get out of dodge when the boom comes down… or preferably a few days before.

For those who would prefer to hear it in video form, you can see the companion video on my YouTube channel, which I encourage you to subscribe to.

The Operational Plan

Okay, if you’ve been reading my articles and watching my videos, you probably already know that my plans for societal collapse lean towards bugging out rather than staying behind for the show. If you have followed my advice, then you’ve probably got a bag put together, a vehicle all kitted out, and you’ve chosen a good bug out location to go to when the shit hits the fan. So, now you are asking, what’s next?

Well, you need to start by asking yourself a series of questions. Where will you be going first? What route will you take? What will you do when you get there? And definitely, what will you do if something goes wrong on the way?

This is where the most important element of a bug out operation comes into play: The Plan. Without it, you’re dead in the water… or on the pavement.

You can have all the best gear, lots of real-world training and experience, and even a  post-apocalyptic vehicle rig that would make Mad Max take a respectful step back, but none of that will help you much if you don’t have a well thought out plan.

As you go over this material this, I want you to keep in mind that a bug out plan is, of necessity, a constantly evolving thing. In your early days getting started prepping, you might not have much experience, or maybe you’re out of shape, or simply don’t have much in the way of resources yet. And that’s fine, we all start from the bottom and work upwards. You just need to keep adjusting things as you go. But definitely don’t fall into the trap of trying to wait until you have everything set the way you want.

Collapse could begin with little warning, and with such potential to have to bug out at any given time, it is important to have some sort of operational plan in place as soon as possible, even if it isn’t perfect. Don’t get discouraged by not having everything you think you need yet, and certainly don’t get bogged down looking for perfection. Even a partial plan is better than no plan at all, so don’t wait, start planning today.

Besides, planning for a bug out is such a massive project that it will take quite a bit of time, especially if you are just getting started. As you grow and become more capable as a prepper, and better equipped to handle collapse, you will add to and adjust the plan as you go. A real collapse-prep bug out plan is a constantly growing and evolving thing, and you grow and evolve along with it.

Bugging Out is not a Last Resort

If you have spent any amount of time researching emergency preparedness, then i am sure you have become quite familiar with the ideas of both bugging in and bugging out. And there is certainly good stuff out there, but you have to stay on your toes. There is also a ton of myths, misconceptions, and outright misinformation out there when it comes to the idea of bugging out, and while dispelling that stuff isn’t the purpose of this article, I am going to dump one for you right away, and I am sure it is going to be unpopular.

Bugging in is a trap. 

Yep, you read that right, I said it. Despite what you hear from so many of the traditional preppers across YouTube and beyond, bugging out is absolutely not a last resort type thing. It is actually the very first thing you should do if you even get hints that the shit is about to hit the fan.

Why is that? Well, I’m not going down the whole list here, I’ve already made the “what to expect” video for what societal collapse will actually look like, and I’ve also written the article as well. 

But the short answer is that we are talking about collapse prepping here, okay? Not prepping for a little flood or for some economic downturn, and not even for a local disaster like a hurricane or tornado. Certainly not the “prepping for Tuesday” stuff that you can get from an old FEMA pamphlet. We are prepping for the total collapse of global civilization, and bugging in for something like that is madness. Urban areas, and even close-proximity rural ones, will be absolute death traps once the boom comes down. You will have plenty of early warning days beforehand, but you don’t want to waste them exploring bug-in options and banking on the hopes that everything will blow over. If you go too early, well, no loss there. However, if you wait until too late… that could really be game over.

No, one of the most fundamental rules for collapse prepping is to bug out. You do it early, you do it fast, and you go as far away as you can get. And you always do it with a predefined plan taking you to a fortified and prepared location. Like the bags and vehicles, that location is discussed in another of my bug out articles and videos, so today we are just going to discuss the plan.

Five Key Sections of Planning

Your operations plan, or OpPlan, is the glue that holds your entire bug out operation together. Having your bag and kit squared away is one thing, and setting up where to go and a vehicle to get you there is another, but those are only three of the four critical elements of a bug out operation. The last crucial element is the plan that ties everything together into a workable operation. It doesn’t matter how good everything else is, without a properly tried and tested plan regarding how you will make all the other elements work together, your bug out will quickly turn into a clusterfuck.

A complete bug out operations plan will have at least five main parts to consider. There can be others, and sub-parts to each of these, but the basic structure is as follows: Defining the objective of the plan, detailing where the operations will take place, assessing all threat vectors and dangers, equipment and asset organization, and finally, the actual route planning itself. 

And look, this all sounds like a lot, but it doesn’t have to be crazy complex, especially not at first, okay? The basic idea is that, once you can see that the collapse is imminent, you have to take action to protect yourself and your family from whatever threats are coming your way. That means you need to be aware of the threats, and have a plan to get out of harm’s way PDQ.

Defining The Objective

The first step is to define your objective goal fully. It isn’t just as simple as saying that your plan is to reach your bug out location. Ideally, the end goal being a safe arrival, you will have a tiered system of objectives for each stage or phase of that larger operational goal.

For example, you will need to have contingency plans for meeting up with others if you are not together when collapse gets underway, and you will need to have different options for different circumstances. That means your initial objective may be a preset rally point or the location of a prepositioned survival cache. Maybe just clearing the city limits is the first part.

Either way, defining your objective means listing, in order, everything you will need to do to complete the mission, no matter what contingencies pop up.

Area Of Operations

Once you have your mission objectives set down, the next stage of planning is to define the limits of your Area of Operations, or AO. Now, if you have watched the channel before, you have heard me harp on about the AO plenty, and that is because it is a critical thing to be very familiar with the environment that you will be operating in. 

Your AO is the geographical area where your operations take place. When it comes to collapse prepping, I have two different categories of AO: there’s Mission AO and then Territorial AO. A mission AO is an area closely defined by specific operational parameters, meaning simply the area where the mission actions will happen. A Territorial AO, on the other hand, is much larger, representing the entirety of the land surrounding your BOL and stretching out as far as you can reasonably expect to manage post-collapse. There can be many different mission areas within your overall area, and each one will be specific to that mission’s individual objectives.

Today, we are talking primarily about the Mission AO that is the area and path where your actual bug out will take place. 

Now, there is one part of Area planning that I want to mention, and that is being able to determine modes of transport based off the terrain and distance that you will be transitioning. A hundred miles is a hundred miles, but there is a big difference in those miles if it is moving along open desert trails or if it is along a heavily forested riverbank. You want to make sure that you are going to have the necessary modes of transport for the vehicles that you have. Don’t plan for a Jeep until you actually have one. In short, make sure you know your area well enough to figure out how you will be moving around it effectively. Some bug outs will be exclusively vehicle based, and others may have foot travel as the primary mode. It is all dependent on the Area of operations.

Threat Assessment

The third step in the planning process is threat assessment. This is a part of the operational planning and research where you identify risks and threat-vectors that may, or will, exist within your AO. You must work out how serious each one is, and what you can do to reduce or eliminate them. Threat categories are usually thought of in three terms, or “events.” There is the main event, ancillary events as a result of that main one, and then there are transitory events that can take place on the way.

Our first category is regarding the direct cause of the collapse you are retreating from. This is the Main Event that brings about your need to bug out of the area. You must go over the factors for where you are located and have available options for various types of SHTF scenarios. Invasion by a hostile military power is one, the pending kickoff of a nuclear exchange is another, and even things like regional or nationwide grid-down events, and certainly newly emerging deadly pandemics. Whatever is possible for your region, those are things that you must evaluate and plan for when doing your threat assessment. 

In addition to the “main event,” as it were, you need to also assess the threats that could come from other vectors based on that main event. These can be termed as “ancillary events,” and are usually unique to your specific local neighborhood. Does your area have a strong criminal element or a large gang population? If so, you need to plan for extra criminal threats that could pop up quicker than in other areas. Are you close to something like a chemical plant or petroleum refinery? If so, you have to do some research into what damage or destruction of that facility could do to the surrounding area. Any and all threat vectors nearby need to be considered, and steps taken to counter them.

So, we have the main event and ancillary events covered. After that are what we can refer to as “transitory events.” These are potential threats that exist along the way to your BOL. These can either be static threat possibilities, such as private compounds or military bases along the way, or they can be dynamic threats such as wildfires in an area prone to such things, or even dust storms like I have here in the desert regions.

Static threats are usually planned for using avoidance tactics for planning your route and also while in the move. Knowing where these threats are located is part of the AO planning. You also must have backup plans in place should one of these static threats become an active problem as the bug out takes place. What do you do if the local army base decides to close and monitor the roads?

Dynamic threats require contingency plans as well, because depending on the SHTF main event, there could be many things happening at once. Wildfires along the way are a great example. You need to have plans in place to deal with them should they occur. Knowing the potential dangers that are prone to happen in the area of your bug out is a key part of threat assessment.

The idea here is that, no matter what happens, there’s a plan for that. And you have it.

Organization And Equipment

After that, our next step is organization and equipment planning. You will have to come up with loadouts, or individual gear plans, for each member of your team, as well as for the vehicles that will be used. This is where those bug out bags and vehicles from my previous videos come into play.

Those are the subjects of the other articles and videos I have mentioned in this bug out series, but I will touch on a few things when it comes to planning around them.

With vehicles, make sure that you are well aware of your vehicle’s capabilities. You should know from previous experience and practice runs just how much fuel you need to get where you are going, what sort of mileage you get offroad versus on, and what kind of terrain you can cross. Think about things such as visibility issues and camouflage. It is all cool to have an orange Jeep during peacetime, but after you bug out you better make sure you have planned for how to make your vehicle a little less visible. A few cans of spray paint might be in order.

When it comes to gear, you have to tailor your kit to the plan and to your environment and climate. Bugging out into the desert requires a different approach to things like clothing and water than does bugging out in the mountains or along a river. Wherever you are, and where you are going, there will be many specific things to consider when planning how to outfit and supply your team. Make sure you spend the time it takes to fully evaluate what you will need.

Another part of this step is making a sub-plan for comms, or communication. Comms will be critical, especially if you are trying to manage a group that is spread out across a city, or if your bug out run comes late and parts of the telecommunications grid are already down or unreliable.

Comms will be a video all its own, for sure, but in short, making sure that all team members are trained-up and equipped with the right commo gear, aware of the comm plan, and familiar with any necessary code jargon will be paramount.

As a side note, integrating things like message drop locations is a part of this planning, as well as having prearranged signs that can be displayed in specific places to alert team members to various situations. For example, having a red handkerchief tied to your vehicle antenna could mean that you have had exposure to a plague carrier, or that you have wounded with you, or maybe that you simply have extra people you picked up along the way. Another thing you can do is have places where marks can be left with chalk secured on location, such as a sign post or a wall in an alley. Little messages to let others passing through know that you have made it this far and then continued on. Whatever it is, having these plans set up and memorized beforehand is critical.

Route Preparation

Finally, we get to the last part, and probably the most time-consuming part, of your bug out plan, and that is route preparation. 

Ideally, you should have three main routes planned for the bug out: a primary, secondary, and tertiary route. There can be many “ancillary” sub-routes, shortcuts, or alternate paths planned within each, as needed.

You need to know what to do if your primary route becomes compromised, either due to collapse events or hostile actions. What do you do then? You can’t afford to waste time or be indecisive in the middle of your bug out, you need to have alternate routes planned from every stage of the journey. That way, no matter what happens or where, you have a contingency in place to make up for it. 

Part of planning all these routes will be giving them designations to make effective communication easier between team members. Each main route gets a name, and each sub-part can get a designation as well, to quickly let everyone on your team know your location without broadcasting that info to opposing forces. Being able to give your position as “One klick to the north out of Bravo 7” is much better than saying “I’m up the street a ways on Town Center drive, just past the Shell gas station.” You want to be clear, but you want to reserve that clarity for your own team, not for those who may be listening in.

This part is kind of a crossover with your commo planning.

Another key part to route preparation is to not limit yourself to the conventional methods of transiting an area. Roads are great, but in the course of a disaster or societal collapse, they are going to become clogged or blocked PDQ. You do not want to be stuck trying to rely on roads and highways for your evacuation. In addition, roads are natural funnels that could be used by potential opposing forces or other hostile elements to detect and/or interdict traffic. You want to have options for avoiding that. 

Pay attention to all the unconventional ways of getting through and across your city or town. Things like those miles-long walking and biking paths that cut through the city between neighborhoods. These things can be everywhere, and cover a lot of ground without many people to create traffic. Also, make sure to map out and inspect aqueducts, flood channels, and washes that run through the city. Knowing where they are, and where they lead to, could be key for using them as alternate routes. Railroad tracks are another great example of unconventional routes, and they usually have service roads running alongside. Such tracks are always good for making quick work of cutting through the city. There are also special hiking trails and even dirt or gravel forestry service roads that can lead outwards from the city.

All of these things and more are parts of what I mean when I say the “unconventional” means of getting out of the city. In a crisis, most people will turn to the roads believing there to be no other option… but proper planning will mean that you will have other options while they do not.

And at its core, that is what prepping really is: giving yourself more and better options than everyone else has.

Now, the reason why route preparation is such a huge part of the planning process is because choosing your routes is just the beginning. Once you have these preliminary routes in mind, the next stage is to go out and actually recon them fully.

By that I mean you physically and visually inspect the routes while actually making a transit. You want to drive the same roads, and walk the same paths that you plan to use during your bug out. And when doing so, you want to drive your intended bug out vehicle and hump your actual bug out bag. 

This is something that you should do more than once, and in different conditions. Such as day and night transits, and other runs to account for seasonal differences. Taking the exact same routes in winter as opposed to summer are usually starkly different experiences, and you need to account for those variables in the planning phase, not on mission day-one.

The primary goal here is to become very familiar with your routes, the terrain, and climate factors. You also want to be able to identify various obstacles, choke points, or ambush positions that may require additional contingency planning. You can also locate and record the positions of various resources along the routes, such as water and shelter, and also identify other potential risks or dangers.

During this process is when you will set up all your checkpoints and rally points along the way.

At the end of this, what you want is to have personal experience with your bug out routes so that you don’t have to stop and think about it when the shit hits the fan. You will already know where to go, won’t have to waste time with any maps, and it won’t matter if your GPS was fried by an EMP because you have been there and done that many times already.

Conclusion

These five parts form the general framework for a good operational bug out plan. Yours will no doubt include many other variables as you tailor it for your specific circumstances and conditions. 

There will be lots of smaller “sub plans” to your overall plan, and many of these can also function as standalone plans for other situations.

For example, having an urban evacuation plan for getting out of the city as quickly and cleanly as possible can certainly be of use without the situation calling for a full bug out. You may simply need to get out ahead of a wildfire, or approaching hurricane. Such an evac plan can work both for the bug out and for other situations. 

Much of your comm plan will also have cross-functionality between other plans and operations.

Basically, planning a complete bug out operation from start to finish, and going through all the potential issues that could crop up can be a very defining exercise for your overall preparedness. You will learn a lot of useful information about your area, and your physical capabilities and those of your vehicles. You will get the chance to make supplementary plans that will give you a head start planning other aspects of your preps, and you will get to do a good amount of in-the-field training, practicing with your gear and also exercising your skills.

A lot of pre-planning information is gathered during this process as well. 

One big issue with prepping in general is making sure you are aware of your own capabilities and limitations when it comes to both skills and fitness. It’s all well and good to make plans to cover 20-miles a day on foot, but when the time comes if it turns out you aren’t capable of such a strenuous task, or if the terrain was tougher to transit than expected, well, it can turn your entire plan into a non-starter.

Going out and actually running your plan in the field means you will know more about what you can and can’t do than ever before. And that will help you when planning every other aspect of emergency preparedness. 


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