Climate Migration: Fleeing Reality as the World Burns Around Us

Climate Refugees: The Elephant In the Room

While some nations commit to a lot of talking – but very little action – to reduce their carbon emissions, and others try – and fail – to adapt their most at-risk cities to hotter, drier conditions, there is another looming specter of disaster no one wants to talk about: the migration of billions of climate refugees. 

For huge swathes of the most densely populated parts of the world, local conditions are already becoming too extreme for people to live in, and there is no way to adapt to those conditions. In fact, we don’t even know the full extent of those conditions, or if there will be any leveling off of the warming before humans go extinct… The long-term outlook is quite bleak, but even in the short term, people will have to move away from the worst areas in order to survive. Climate migration is happening regardless of what we do about it.

Given the extent of the acceleration we see with climate change, over the next few years we can expect things to get much worse than they are now. Hotter temperatures combined with more intense humidity are going to make many currently highly populated places lethal to live in. Seeking to escape the tropics, the coasts, and formerly arable lands, huge numbers of people will need to seek new homes. 

And yes, it does involve you. Wherever you are, you will either be among the refugees, or you will be dealing with receiving them. This migration has already begun—we have all seen the streams of people fleeing various areas in Latin America, Africa, and Asia where farming and other rural livelihoods have become impossible.

The number of migrants has doubled globally over the past decade, and the issue of what to do about rapidly increasing populations of displaced people will only become greater and more urgent as the planet heats up.

We can—and we must—prepare.

Some people still talk about developing some radical and high-technology plan for humanity to survive the far hotter world we are about to be living in. Not only to survive it, but to fix it, repairing the damage we have done so that things can get back to normal one day. Often these plans include building vast new cities in the more tolerable far-north regions while abandoning huge areas of the unendurable tropics. They say we need to adapt our food, energy, and infrastructure to a changed environment as billions of people are displaced by the worsening climate.

According to these techno-hopium addicts, our best hope lies in cooperating as never before. We are supposed to believe that humanity as a whole can come together as one people, one united species, to save ourselves. Starting with decoupling the political map from geography, we must give up national ambitions and geopolitical power structures as they are today. Not only that, but we must completely change the way our global economy works. We need to look at the world afresh and collectively develop new plans based on geology, geography, and ecology. In other words, identify where the freshwater resources are, where the safe temperatures are, and where gets the most solar or wind energy, and then plan population, food, and energy production around that. We have to do it without greed, without animosity, and without any differences getting in the way.

Now, how realistic does that sound to you? Given our historical and cultural traditions of seeking power and warring over everything from resources and territory to political ideology and religion, just how easy does it seem that we can somehow achieve some sort of collective global utopia, where everyone agrees and puts the greater good above personal ambition? Really, think about it. All the world’s leaders and dictators willingly giving up their power, all the wealthy selflessly devoting their resources to help humanity, all the corporations turning their assets and production towards the goal of saving the world… and all of us getting along peacefully while doing so.

It is a fantasy. So far outside the realm of possibility that were you to pitch this idea in Hollywood as a movie, you would be laughed out of town.

Can’t we just all get along? No, lol, absolutely not. In fact, our ability to tolerate each other and our differences is getting worse, not better. Sure, we would fight and war and kill over religion and cultural differences throughout history, but these days we are killing each other in traffic for driving too slowly, or for grabbing the last bag of Chex Mix at the grocery store. 

Good News and Bad News

The good news is… well, there isn’t any good news.

The bad news is that no place on Earth will be unaffected by climate change. It isn’t just about being hotter, such temperature changes affect everything. Everywhere will undergo some kind of transformation in response to changes in the climate, whether through direct impacts or the indirect result of being part of a globally interconnected biophysical and socioeconomic system. Extreme events are already occurring around the world and will continue to hit “safe” places. Some places, though, will be more easily adaptable to these changes, while others will become entirely uninhabitable fairly quickly. Bear in mind that many places will be uncomfortable if not intolerable by 2030—if we make it that far—so we need to start figuring out what we are going to do now. By 2050 earth will be an entirely different planet.

If we make it that far? Yes, because climate change doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and the ecological effects aren’t the only things we need to be worried about. Climate pressures will affect the global food supply, increase the chances of new viral pandemics, and spawn further, worsening conflicts as nations begin to respond violently to the chaos.

The migration of climate refugees will be one of the big problems that will contribute directly to such chaos. Desperate, starving people are going to start moving in the millions, and where are they gonna go? They will go where the food is.

Climate change is shifting the geographical position of our species’ temperature niche northwards, and people will follow. According to a 2020 study, the optimum climate for human productivity across both agricultural and non­agricultural output is about an average temperature of 11°C to 15°C. This global “Goldilocks zone” is where human populations have concentrated themselves and their civilizations for millennia, so it’s not surprising that our crops, livestock, and other economic practices are ideally adapted to the conditions to be found there. The research has shown that, given our “business as usual” pattern of growth and the accelerated effects of climate change, about 3 billion people are soon to find themselves well outside the ideal climate conditions for humanity’s continued survival. Basically, if those people do not migrate to more suitable places, more than one-third of the global population would be trapped experiencing temperatures that currently resemble those of the Sahara desert.

As a general rule, people will need to move away from the equator, and from coastlines, small islands (which will shrink in size), and arid or desert regions. Rainforests and woodlands are also places to avoid, due to fire risk. Populations are going to shift inland, towards lakes, higher elevations and northern latitudes.

Looking at the globe, it is immediately clear that land is mainly distributed in the north—less than a third of Earth’s land is in the southern hemisphere and most of that is either in the tropics or Antarctica. So the scope for climate migrants to seek refuge in the south is limited. Patagonia is the main option, although it is already suffering from droughts, but agriculture and settlement there will remain possible as the global temperature rises. The main lands of opportunity for migrants, however, are in the north. Temperatures in these safer regions will rise—and will rise faster in higher latitudes than at the equator – but the average absolute temperature will still be far lower than in the tropics. Of course, climate disruption brings extreme weather, and nowhere will be spared these increasingly common events—Canada recently reached temperatures of 50°C in 2021, making British Columbia hotter than the Sahara Desert, and then, a few months later, was hit by deadly floods and landslides that displaced thousands. Fires have blazed across Siberia’s tundra, and melting permafrost is a shifting, unstable ground on which to build infrastructure.

However, the northern latitudes are already home to wealthier nations that generally have a collective bad attitude when it comes to outside migrants. They do have strong institutions and stable governments, but culturally and socially these places are the least amenable to sharing, nor are they too keen on changing their own culture to accommodate that of others. Not only that, but there are geopolitical issues at work that make many of these places already hostile to each other, and the quest for power and dominance continues even now. So, while these regions are among the best situated to build social and technological resilience to the challenges this century, they are the least likely to be able to get along long enough to even make a start at it.

Problematically, many of them have also struggled politically with immigration to a far greater extent than have many much poorer countries (poor countries also host by far the greatest numbers of displaced people), and with a migrant “crisis” that is far smaller than the great climate migration we will see over the next 25 years. There is simply no way to shift such a deeply held and long-ingrained socio-political mindset in the space of a few years. We would have a better chance of magically returning the tropics to habitability than that.

But, just for the sake of argument, what would such a supported migration of much of the world’s population look like? Assuming we could all keep from killing each other over it, that is…

The New North: Opportunities and Challenges

Above the 45°N latitude—passing through Michigan, France, Croatia, Mongolia, and Xinjiang in China—lies a region poised to thrive in the twenty-first century. This vast area, covering 15% of the Earth’s surface, harbors 29% of its ice-free land, yet houses only a small fraction of the world’s aging population. With average temperatures around 13°C, it is entering a climate ideal for human productivity.

Inland lake systems, such as the Great Lakes region of Canada and the U.S., are expected to see a dramatic influx of migrants, reversing the previous trend of out-migration. These large bodies of water will help moderate the region’s climate. Duluth, Minnesota, situated on Lake Superior, claims to be the most climate-resilient city in the U.S., though it faces challenges with fluctuating water levels. Other cities in the upper Midwest, like Minneapolis and Madison, are also anticipated to become attractive destinations. Conversely, southern Midwestern cities are likely to contend with extreme heat waves. Research from the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative predicts that eight out of the top ten U.S. cities facing extreme heat in the near future will be in the Midwest, including Detroit and Grand Rapids. Further east, while Buffalo, New York, and Canadian cities like Toronto and Ottawa may offer refuge, the risks increase as one moves further along the coast.

Adaptation strategies could enable some coastal cities to endure. Boston, for instance, is positioned far enough north to avoid much of the projected extreme heat. Its planners have devised a comprehensive strategy involving elevated roads, coastal defenses, and marshes to absorb floodwaters. But the question remains whether such places will be able to maintain stability.

Much of the rest of the U.S. will face considerable challenges. The central corridor will contend with worsening tornadoes, something we have actually already been seeing this year. Other regions south of the 42nd parallel will suffer from extensive heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts that are worse than what we are dealing with today. Even now, Phoenix Arizona just created a new record for summer of 100 days straight with temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Coastal areas will grapple with increasingly violent storms, flooding, erosion, and contamination of freshwater sources. The so-called “desirable” locations like Florida, California, and Hawaii are likely to see decimated populations, while former Rustbelt cities could experience a dystopian shortage of resources and increasing violence amid an influx of immigrants. Still, as bad as things could get there, that will be where most people are heading.

Alaska emerges as the most promising place to live in the U.S., with cities needing to accommodate millions of new migrants heading to the increasingly busy Arctic. In 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Resilience Screening Index ranked Kodiak Island, Alaska, as having the lowest risk of climate events in the country. By 2037, Alaska could experience temperatures comparable to today’s Florida. However, some communities, like Newtok, are already relocating due to melting permafrost and erosion. The retreat of ice and thawing tundras pose significant challenges for indigenous communities and wildlife. Nonetheless, the New North offers immense opportunities for development. How indigenous communities choose to meet this influx remains to be seen, but migration to the north is inevitable. And that means that conflict is also coming.

Transformative Changes in the Far North

The far north will undergo dramatic transformations due to agriculture becoming feasible and the opening of the North Sea Passage shipping route. The melting of Greenland’s ice sheet will reveal new areas for habitation and farming. Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, situated just below the Arctic Circle, is already experiencing growth. Warmer temperatures have expanded fisheries, attracted new fish species, and opened up new farming opportunities with a longer growing season. The retreating ice is also revealing mining opportunities, including for oil, so while trying to survive the changing climate we can still keep up our parasitic economic activity and make it all far worse.

Canada, Siberia, Iceland, the Nordic nations, and Scotland are also likely to gain from global warming. Arctic vegetation is expected to nearly double by the 2080s, with extended growing seasons, particularly around current farmland. The Nordic nations, already benefiting from warmer North Atlantic currents, will find their cold winters easing. Sweden has already seen a 25% increase in per capita GDP due to global warming, while other low-emission countries have faced economic setbacks. What seems like a positive thing is actually revealed to be just a worsening of global inequality. The potential for increased agricultural productivity in the north underscores the moral imperative to integrate tropical migrants into these nations. But, while such a moral imperative exists, it does so within the species responsible for the destruction of the planet’s habitability in the first place, so it isn’t likely that any such accommodations will be made.

The melting arctic ice will render the Northwest Passage navigable for much of the year, reducing shipping times by about 40%. This will facilitate regional trade, tourism, fishing, and mineral exploration. Canada stands to double its population by 2050 through immigration, which itself will lead to all sorts of problems economically, both for the original inhabitants and the new.

Russia is also set to benefit, with its national action plan capitalizing on climate warming. As the world’s largest wheat exporter, Russia’s agricultural dominance is expected to grow. By 2050, more than half of Siberia’s permafrost could disappear, making the region more habitable and expanding its growing seasons. However, the loss of permafrost will present significant challenges for infrastructure and settlements reliant on frozen ground.

Other regions, including Scotland, Ireland, Estonia, and elevated locations with ample water like Carcassonne in France, will see new or expanded cities. In the global south, high-latitude areas such as Patagonia, Tasmania, New Zealand, and potentially the western Antarctic coast offer potential for development. Antarctica alone may see up to 10,000 square kilometers of new, ice-free land by mid-century, though its preservation as a nature reserve will suffer dramatically, as well as becoming something else for the powerful nations of the world to contend over.

Elsewhere in the world, higher elevations like the Rocky Mountains and the Alps will attract new refugees as well. Cities like Boulder and Denver, and Ljubljana in Slovenia, are already drawing migrants with their elevated locations and abundant resources. Meaning those resources won’t be abundant for long.

And so, as we bring this utopian fantasy vision to a close, we can see that even in the most magical of cases, with the best technology Star Trek has to offer, the migration of billions of people will require superhuman solutions. Complete changes to international agreements for land acquisition, new forms of citizenship, and even the establishment of charter cities. Global freedom of movement would have to be enshrined as a basic human right, improving billions of lives, and presenting an opportunity to adapt and thrive in a changing world. 

But that is fantasy. A dream with no basis whatsoever in reality. And all of that above doesn’t even account for the staggering amount of damage that would be happening around us all as the forces of nature try and wipe out what humanity has built. The wide-eyed hopium addicts among us look longingly upon this vision of an adapted world of peace and cooperation with an astounding level of self-delusion. The future they envision has only one real effect on them, and that is to render them powerless to face anything else. In their blind pursuit of the unattainable, they will squander what small chance they have to see any future at all.

And that is good for the rest of us. It gives some few of us the chance to prepare, stockpile, and plan, to secure our share of the resources before there aren’t enough to go around anymore.

Prepare For The Worst

Oooh, ouch. That stings a bit, hmmm? What a horrible thing for me to say.

Yes, horrible. But not wrong. Because the simple fact is that, even without war or plague or famine, the world simply doesn’t have the carrying capacity left to continue supporting the number of people on this planet, especially when you look at how we plan to continue growing. We have reached the Limits To Growth as outlined so long ago, and in fact, we have greatly exceeded them in an incredible display of overshoot.

You have seen the cartoon characters from back in the day, right? Man, they would run so hard and run so fast that they ran right off the edge of the cliff without even knowing it! And they just kept right on going until… until they looked down. Because then came the drop. Not a gradual drift down, but a sharp, fast, and dramatic crash straight to the rocks below. 

And that is where we are. The tipping points have tipped, and we have overshot the overshoot mark. The world is a spinning top that has been knocked off balance, and the only result is a crash.

But don’t worry. The environment won’t kill us. Oh no, that takes a bit of time, more than a decade even at this rate. No, we will do the job ourselves, which is, after all, what we are best at. Long before the climate bakes and breaks our cities, we will reduce them to slag in the nuclear fires of war.

And so, when I say we must prepare, I do not mean that collectively. The only collective action humanity as a whole is capable of is conflict. No, I mean we must prepare as we are now. Individually and in our little family and friend groups. We must each of us find our people and get ready for what will come because the future is not some shining utopia of collective goodwill as envisioned by the hopeful. No, our future is a darker one. A grittier, grimier one than that. A tribal future amid the ruins of a broken world.

And it will begin with the migration of all those poor people already suffering under the weight of the developed world’s folly. They are coming, but there won’t be anywhere for them to go. There will be precious little in the way of resources, and for those we will fight. Nation against nation all the way down to neighbor against neighbor, we will fight at the beginning of the end.

And we are at the end of the beginning now. So, make a plan. A plan based in reality, with the full understanding of true human nature behind it. Conflict and climate change are both coming. And you need to make a plan to not be around for that fight.