A Political Wasteland

Predictions For The Collapse Of American Politics In The 2024 Election

You are not going to like this article.

Without knowing anything about you, your politics, your religion, or your cultural identification, I can already tell that you aren’t going to like this article. Because no one is going to. And that, like much of our current political divide in America, is by design. This 2024 Election almost seems designed specifically to cause division and anger. Why is that?

I recently found myself traveling out to Milwaukee, Wisconsin during the Republican National Convention. I was actually there during the assassination attempt on Trump, and I was still hanging around when Biden dropped out of the race. I wasn’t there for the convention specifically, but I always take opportunities when they are presented, especially when it comes to a little intel gathering. 

I did not attend the convention at all. That isn’t the kind of intel I was there to gather, and watching Hulk Hogan rip off t-shirts was something I had gotten out of my system when I was a kid. Besides, all that would be available online to look at later.

But, what wouldn’t be available online were the street-level conversations I could eavesdrop on, the local people on both sides of the aisle that I could talk to, and the general interactions between regular folks that I could observe. And those things, my friends, are the bread and butter of real intel gathering.

And so, I’ve spent the last little while trying to understand what ordinary Americans think about all this. I traveled as much as I could, listening to people in small towns, big cities, suburbs, and rural areas. A bit of the midwest, and also areas closer to home in Nevada, Arizona, and California. Whenever I find the chance, I ask them how they believe the country is doing now and recently. What do they like and don’t like about the way our government is working, how do they see their role as citizens, and why do they think we’re so divided? I also spent some time looking at their perspectives outside of my own. Not everyone is the same, and most are not collapse-aware, so they do not all look at the world through the same lens as I might. I wanted to know things such as what their trusted sources of information are. Are they having to work across political and cultural divides in their own communities? Do they think our national divisions could be healed, or is it too late in their minds to bridge the gap? I spent a lot of time hanging out at coffee shops and bars and whatnot, mostly listening, occasionally participating, and pretending to be from one side or the other.

Because that is important, you see. What side you’re on. Are you for the red or the blue, the right or the left? Or, in other words, “What kind of American are you?”  That is the question being asked now, and when people don’t like your answer…

Divided We Fall

The biggest and most important conclusion I can come to after all of my recent observations and research, is that things have gotten out of hand. In a nutshell, that’s the core issue. America is more divided today than it’s been in a very long time, possibly more than it’s ever been. And while I am aware of it, I still can’t really put my finger on why.

The scary part is that the “why” doesn’t really matter anymore. As we draw closer and closer to the collapse of civilization, there simply isn’t enough time left to worry about why things are happening, we have to focus on what is actually happening and what we can do to deal with it. 

Right now, the world is like a spinning top that has been damaged enough to enter that wobbly, unstable state right before it flips on its side and does a final, violent spin-out. Mounting problems from climate change and resource scarcity to geopolitical tensions, economic upheaval, and overcomplexity in our systems are all working upon each other as force multipliers, sending us careening inevitably, and irretrievably, into total collapse. The political divide being seen in America right now is just another symptom of the overall final decay.

And that was inevitable as well. Because, as problems develop people want solutions to those problems, and they want them now. When the problems grow worse instead of things “going back to normal,” people become even more frustrated. They want answers. They want assurances. They want the insecurity, fear, and stress to go away, and anyone promising to deliver them from those things can gain a lot of traction in their minds.

And that is exactly what we are seeing. Not just in America either, but everywhere. Americans just make it more noticeable because of how loud we are about it.

I grew up in a time when people believed there was something special about America. Our history, our traditions, our birth out of rebellion. Something that holds Americans together. And in many ways that was once true, but not anymore. Sure, we had experienced deep divisions before, we even fought a civil war over slavery, but we had always found a way to come back together. But that capability seems to be fraying. Or, perhaps it is broken altogether. Whatever it is exactly that is driving the American people further and further apart, well, like I said, it doesn’t really matter anymore. Like so many of the other parts of this polycrisis that we face, it is too late to fix it. All we can do now is deal with it.

This brings me back to my own observations during the RNC, and also those of my time back home here in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the part you aren’t going to like.

Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics

You wouldn’t know it from the media reporting, or from the campaigning taking part across most social media platforms right now, but the vast majority of people that I have either listened in on, or interacted directly with recently, are voting Trump. The polls show it, and in fact have been showing it for some time, and even the recent swap to Harris hasn’t really changed things. The polls do show a slight percentage increase for Harris, but this is only talking about the national average, and the popular vote, which really doesn’t mean much. The electoral college is king.

But, then the argument is always about how the polls are wrong… They didn’t ask every single person in the United States, and so it means nothing. People don’t like to think about how a small sampling, just like a water test, is indicative of the state of the whole, on average. That is why there is a margin of error.

At any rate, this article is the result of my own personal poll. My own direct sampling of what I have personally heard and who I have personally talked to. Being in Las Vegas allows me to interact with people from all over the nation. Every state sends representatives here regularly, lol. And what I am hearing on the street is not matching what I am hearing in the mainstream news media. Almost everyone I encounter seems to be planning to vote for Trump this November. And that includes normally democratic voters, such as the unions. The culinary union here in Las Vegas is huge, and most of them seem to believe that Trump will impact their wallets more favorably than anyone the Democrats have put up. Maybe it shouldn’t be much of a surprise as Nevada swung firmly to the right in 2022 with the election of Trump’s boy Joe Lombardo to the governor’s office.

And yes, despite what the media always harps on about regarding all the “issues,” the only real issue anyone cares about is their own wallet. The more stressed that wallet is, the more blame is laid at the feet of the current administration, regardless of whose fault it actually is. Truth doesn’t matter, and hasn’t mattered for quite some time now. Perception is all the rage with voters.

The rhetoric and hatred that I am hearing from people on both sides of the aisle is striking. And I am sure you have heard and read your share as well. Back in the day there was always such hostility between the parties and their supporters. What I remember from back then, was heated political debate, with Republicans and Democrats fighting hard, challenging each other intellectually on the issues. There were battles over government spending, taxes, the environment, immigration, you name it. Political opponents hammered each other during one election season after another.

But for the past decade or so, it’s become clear politics has been degenerating into more of a cultural personality contest. There are very deep divides, not only over actual issues, but over culture, social ideals, and character. We hear leaders of one party calling the other not just wrong, but anti-American. They say it is treason to vote for the other guy, and that it will be “the end of America as we know it.” Surveys show that more than two-thirds of Americans today view members of the other party as immoral and dishonest, at best, and as outright fascist traitors at worst. What used to be seen as a tolerable set of policy differences has become profoundly personal. And political violence has reared its head several times now, after a very long hiatus. We have had riots through the halls of the Capitol building, and have seen a candidate go down under fire at a speaker podium.

If you had said those two things were going to happen soon back in 2014, just 10 years ago, you would have been laughed at by members of both parties. It would have been ludicrous to think of.

And now, we have people on both sides cheering on one act or the other. And it doesn’t matter which side is which, because in calling for such violence both sides are wrong.

But the divide can’t be bridged.

Go ahead, try it. Maybe you are reading this article on Reddit, so just go try it in the comments. Try and take any middle-of-the-road position and watch as both sides tear you apart for not being vehemently opposed to one side or the other. We are constantly being shown new tidbits about how people think that, if their chosen party doesn’t win, then violence and civil war may be an acceptable solution. In fact, for many it seems it is the only solution. People have been driven to the point that they actually believe there is a real threat to the future of freedom and democracy in this election, and what is most troubling is that both sides believe this. With the divide being so deep, and the numbers being so close, there is no clear majority either way. And so, no matter what happens this November, about half of the population of the United States is going to be pissed off.

Violently pissed off.

Right now, there are a lot of us who want to kill each other for no other reason than what we have been told on the news and by our chosen political candidates. According to a recent PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, 1 in 5 Americans believe that violence is necessary to get the country back on track. And that is a crazy thought for those of us who realize that the problems in the world are not ones that can even be fixed at all. But we can’t really talk about climate change, because it has been politicized. We can’t talk about resource scarcity, because that has been politicized as well. Hey, we can’t even discuss the kind of global war that naturally and inevitably arises from those other issues, because, you guessed it, it has been politicized.

Both political parties here in the U.S. have become more like cults than political parties. It is a feature of cults that they overemphasize the importance of their teachings. Everything is always about the extreme, if you don’t do this certain thing or think this specific way, well, the Great Spaghetti Monster will smite us all and bring on Armageddon.

And now that is exactly what both Democrats and Republicans have started saying. If you don’t vote for the correct side, well, it will be the end of democracy, the end of freedom, the series finale of The Great American Experience… or whatever.

Most of the leaders of both parties have contributed directly to building these new cult-like followings. On both sides of the aisle, people have embraced magical thinking, attacked their enemies as traitors to either democracy or American tradition, and denounced reality-based science and journalism. There is no more objective reality, there are only narratives being pushed by one side or the other, with both so extreme as to be laughable if they weren’t so dangerous. Disinformation is rampant to the point where people have forgotten how to separate truth from manipulation, and in fact, truth doesn’t really matter anymore. It is all about what people fear or desire. And the narratives are not subtle anymore. Whether you watch the box-office hit “Civil War,” or kept up with this season of “The Boys” on Amazon, you are seeing it on display quite obviously. Isn’t it just a bit ridiculous that a TV show about superheroes focuses more on January 6th and the assassination of political candidates than on anything else?

Belief Is More Powerful Than Truth

I read once that people can be made to believe anything, either because they will fear it to be true or because they want it to be true. That is what is driving much of the division we see. The disinformation people believe in these days comes out of desperation, because they desperately fear it, or are desperate in their desire for it to be real. And it all comes back to the impending societal collapse due to other factors. This fear and desperation are products of social decay, confusion, and despair. And that decay is expanding, soon to explode in a global collapse the likes of which humanity has never experienced before.

But people don’t realize that. They are either unaware of the polycrisis building around us, or they are willfully ignorant in denial of it. And because of that, all the problems they see around them seem to have no cause. They are confused about why the world is at war again, why is the weather so screwed up, and why the hell is everything so damn expensive… they have grown desperate. And unfortunately, the desperate are easily manipulated.

It is like having a car with a tiny hole in the radiator. Water leaks out, and eventually, there is nothing left to keep the engine cool. For a driver who is unaware of how the vehicle operates internally, there can be confusion and frustration. The car begins to overheat and must be driven slowly, or even stopped occasionally for breaks to cool down. Each time it overheats, it gets a little more damaged from the process. Warped heads, failing gaskets, broken down oil… the exact issues aren’t relevant, and they are only symptoms of a larger problem anyway. But for the driver, the problem is becoming a major nuisance and a threat to their own stability. They need to get to work, to pick up the kids, to go shopping for groceries, and they don’t have time for this nonsense… Parts keep breaking and must be replaced, and the mechanics they go to have realized that the driver isn’t fully aware of the real problem.

And when those mechanics are only concerned for their own gain… it is easy to manipulate the driver. They can sell lots of solutions, lots of parts and labor, slowly milking all the gain from our poor driver, but they never actually fix the problem. Things only get worse, and the driver only gets more crazed about it, blaming anything and everything, until one day the engine seizes up and the car is ruined forever…

And that is where we are. On one side, we have a population that is almost entirely unaware that the collapse of civilization is at hand. And on the other hand, we have those in power who are well aware of what is happening but are choosing instead to manipulate the situation for their own short-term gain, to better position themselves to survive what is coming at the expense of everyone else. Because they are quite aware of the real issues. They know what is happening, are in fact complicit in having allowed it to get this far, and now… now they just want to ensure their own survival and power.

A little bread, a little circus

Bread and circuses. The tried and true method of distraction for the masses during the end times of a civilization. Keep people divided, frustrated, and unaware, and yet also entertained. This election has more in common with the Superbowl or the World Cup than it does with democracy. It is just blindly devoted fans of one team or the other, screaming nonsensically at each other before the game starts, each violently opposed to the other because… why? It isn’t about the future of the nation because there is no future, for any nation. It is simply about a last grab for power and capacity before the lights go out. What we are seeing is the wealthy and powerful elites loudly proclaiming their ability to make everything right again, while quietly collecting supplies and life-vests to board the last few boats on the Titanic, and leave the rest of us behind. And we are too busy fighting each other over manufactured crises to see it. We have become absorbed in the fights for gun rights, abortion rights, religious freedom, racial equality, and so on and so forth… none of which will matter in the slightest after the collapse of civilization.

Do you think the Romans knew? In the last days, with all the bread and circuses, do you think many of them actually knew what was coming? Or, did they scoff at the idea? Did they comfort themselves with declarations of their own superiority in the world, and laugh aloud at the idea that somehow their great nation could crumble to rubble?

Do you know now? Or do you scoff at the idea..?

The efforts by both political parties and much of the press to discredit each other are futile. As if our problems are embodied in one candidate or the other. The smug, self-righteousness of their crusades against each other only contributes to the reality TV show that has replaced journalism and politics. It is certainly true that America, and the entire world, faces an imminent disaster, and there is no doubt that democracy is failing. Those things are the kernels of truth in this sea of misinformation. This political theater we see each day attempts to reduce a global environmental, economic, and political crisis down to the personalities of a couple of American political candidates, as if they alone can fix it all and save the world. It is accompanied by a refusal to confront and name the actual forces responsible for our failing global civilization. To take it a step further, we can see that both sides are raising tons of money, and the stock market is flying higher than it ever has before, while regular people have less and less every day. This obvious collusion with the forces of corporate oppression is both embraced by both sides, and also touted as the evil afflicting the opposing side. 

The truth that is cleverly hidden in the accusations of both parties, is one that is merely misstated. The Democrats will say it is Republicans who have impoverished the working class and licensed corporations to exploit the most vulnerable. And the Republicans will say it is the Democrats who have fostered endless war across the world and transferred all the wealth upwards into the hands of billionaires. And the devil in the details is that neither side is lying because they are both equally responsible. They are both fully at fault.

And the biggest part of the problem isn’t that we are not following the right solution, it is that there is no solution, and we just don’t want to admit it. This civilization, along with our planetary ecology, is like a plane experiencing engine failure, and rather than bail out we are, all of us, going to ride this thing right into the ground. The entire way, we will refuse to acknowledge the descent, we will keep screaming about how all we have to do is this or if we all just did that, then we will be okay, then we will get it fixed…

It won’t be fixed. It cannot be fixed.

And that is why I am making the prediction that I am about to make. I am going to put my money where my mouth is, and I am going to clearly state the results that I can see coming after having listened to the actual talk on the street. After having run the actual numbers that matter, and doing all the research into those numbers.

Donald Trump will win the election in November.

And, just like that, half of the readers here are gone. Off to the comments or forums somewhere to vent their hatred for that statement, and to repeat whatever party line mantra they have been indoctrinated with by their cult lea–, sorry, by their candidate.

But when I say that Trump will win, I am not saying it as a supporter of Trump, but as an unbiased observer who doesn’t care either way. I don’t care for Trump. I didn’t really care for Biden. And, you guessed it, Harris isn’t exactly on my Christmas card list either. I see them all for what they are. Desperate parasites looking to secure their own lives and power in the face of collapse at the expense of anyone and everyone around them. The fact that both sides have declared that they can save society proves the lie of everything else they say. Because it cannot be saved. The science is pretty damn clear on that. Climate change and resource scarcity have progressed to the point where there is no other possible result except for a situation where everyone is going to have to fight for survival. It will begin with nations fighting to survive and retain power against their rivals, and that will naturally progress into a final desperate nuclear exchange which will end any concept of civilization for those few who do survive it. By concealing that truth from the world, those in power are simply trying to increase their own odds of survival as it all comes crashing down.

“Never Tell Me the Odds…”

And so, my prediction. As a further symptom of the inevitable collapse of civilization, Trump will win in November. Harris will win the popular vote, but that means nothing in our system. Never has. The way the electorate stands now, just about every state is already decided. Only a few remain close. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Harris would need to win every single one of them. If a single one falls to Trump, that is it. This can clearly be seen if you look at the polls from individual states, rather than the national averages that the media keeps putting out. Each state clearly shows how they polled in 2020, and how they eventually voted in 2020. You can compare those numbers with the moves in the 2022 elections, and now the polls of today. Simple math gives you the results. Here is a visual for those who don’t like math, that clearly shows the breakdown of the electoral votes as they stand now:

For those who don’t use such tools, the dark-colored states in blue and red are those with hard number margins of at least 12% in favor of one candidate or the other. I trust you can sort the colors out on your own. The lighter-shaded states are the ones “likely” to be carried by the candidates, with poll margins of between 5% and 11%. After that, we have the very light-colored states, and these are the ones that “lean” in one direction or another by anywhere from 1% to 4%. Once those have all been accounted for, we have the electoral votes standing at 269 for Trump and 211 for Harris. Perhaps you are starting to see the problem now, with only 270 needed to win… The remaining grey states are the true battlegrounds, the ones that will decide this race.

Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. These are the only states where the question is still up in the air and too close to call. Minnesota and New Hampshire will probably go to Harris, but the polling is much tighter than when Biden won these states in 2020. Still, even with those, and given the standing of the electoral vote count thus far, Harris would have to win all three of the remaining states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins any single one of them, it is over.

And I just came from traveling all over Wisconsin… In my opinion, Trump is going to pull it easily. That isn’t from me looking at the polls, which Trump leads in right now by almost 2% according to the newest polls dropping only 54 minutes ago as I write this on 7/24/24. No, even without those polls, my opinion is based on a significant amount of personal research out there, on the ground, live, and in person.

But you don’t believe me. Most likely, I am now being labeled as one of “the enemy” for having made these crazy statements. That is how cults do things, after all. There is no truth except your truth, right? Well, if you disagree, feel free to drop your own Pulitzer Prize-winning article in the comments below, and I will give it a look.

At least we will know come November. Unlike collapse, this prediction has a very clearly defined timeline, and I am clearly telling you what I see to be the end result. Someone will get to tell someone else “I told you so” very soon.

And I don’t care. Not at all. Because I know the one overriding truth. And that is, it won’t matter. The spectacle you are watching in this 2024 election cycle is just that, a spectacle. It is a circus just for you, my friend. Only this time, there won’t be bread for any of us at the end of it. The only ones eating will be those in power. And that is true no matter who wins.

Maybe I will be wrong. Maybe Donald Trump will choke to death on a chicken bone at one of his many fundraising dinners. Maybe Kamala Harris will make contact with Aliens who can solve all the world’s problems.

We will find out soon enough.