Societal Collapse Due to Climate Change and Conflict

How it could all come tumbling down

(Originally published February 10th, 2022)

There is a good paper floating about the internet warning that society could collapse due to climate change-related disasters and conflict in the next 20 years or so. Not good. Furthermore, according to the authors, such a collapse has been deemed not just possible, but quite plausible should nations of the world fail to take meaningful action.

This policy paper, titled “Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach,” paints a scenario in which global social order breaks down after people fail to band together and address the causes and effects of climate change. And soon, like within the next twenty years. Food shortages emerge as supplies run low, financial systems buckle causing economies to collapse, sickness and disease kill people by the millions, and natural disasters ravage the land. Mass migrations of refugees from broken countries and ruined environments strain even the more resilient nations to the breaking point. Trade breaks down, nations stop cooperating with each other, and conflicts eventually break out, plunging the world into war, and possibly into darkness.

The authors, David Spratt and Ian Dunlop write, “This scenario provides a glimpse into a world of ‘outright chaos’ on a path to the end of human civilization and modern society as we have known it, in which the challenges to global security are simply overwhelming and political panic becomes the norm.”

They present this scenario, carefully outlined in the paper, as a potential outcome for the world in the near future should things continue as they have been. They are hoping that such a dire prediction will prompt governments around the world to treat the climate crisis as a national security issue, one that represents a clear existential threat to humanity. So far it seems like climate change has just been considered an environmental problem with health, political, and economic risks that must be offset rather than something that can bring about the collapse of global civilization, and possibly even the extinction of the human species.

My own way of looking at it

The way I see it is simpler than the more intellectual people out there. The climate crisis is like a speeding truck that we see in our rear-view mirror at the top of a hill a little ways off behind us. Sure, it is speeding dangerously, but the distance makes it seem like an easily avoidable danger. I mean look how far away it is, right? And so, we are not too worried about it. We are quite confident that we will be out of harm’s way by the time it reaches us, or we can wait to react until it gets a little closer, and so we continue to advance at our leisurely pace while we turn our attention to the immediate issues that are pressing on us.

We kinda forget about that truck a little bit. So far away… But little do we realize that it’s beginning to pick up speed as it comes down the hill. We paid no attention to the warnings that “objects in (the) mirror are closer than they appear,” and just kept looking at what was right in front of us, and only now are we suddenly looking back in horror at the looming grill of that out-of-control truck about to smash us apart. But now, after waiting and doing nothing for so long, it may already be too late to swerve…

What it really means

This paper should not be considered as just two theorists cherry-picking data to come up with a worst-case scenario. It is anything but. The scenario outlined in the paper is actually quite plausible based on the idea that the current pattern will continue, and no one will really work together in meaningful ways to curb climate change. I would describe the presented scenario as an essential piece of information for use in scientific discourse. Not just because those assumptions of governmental failure have proven correct over time, but because something like this can help connect the dots for other climate scientists who are worried about sounding too alarmist.

It’s really about expanding the conversation so that people don’t caught up in the idea of climate change just being about clean air and fresh water. Such a doomsday scenario isn’t just caused by climate change alone. In reality, climate change is simply a factor, albeit a major one, that puts strain on other aspects of our geopolitical systems, economic networks, social institutions, and even parts of our increasingly intertwined cultures.

Because of the complexity and interdependence of all of our interconnected markets and nations, any breakdowns can have ripple effects that result in cascading failures across the entirety of global civilization. Once you reach a certain point, major events are no longer able to be predicted with any accuracy because there are just too many factors in play, too much going on at once.

Several scientific institutions and governments have released many damning reports lately about the dire impact that climate change is having on such things as biodiversity, the economy, ocean health, and weather patterns. But I would argue, as did Spratt and Dunlop, that those reports are much too conservative in their estimates of what could happen. They tend to leave out a lot of negative climate change-related events that are very difficult to predict, and even somewhat under-represent the risks. In fact, the authors even believe that most major climate-change reports are usually edited and watered down to satisfy the leaders of many different nations with competing political and economic agendas. And, pardon me, but that’s a bullshit move.

We’re getting hit by a Mack truck

Global climate change is certainly to fuel competition for resources, economic distress, and social discontent through the next few years. Such things will eventually lead to conflicts between nations. Potential disasters like extreme weather events, breadbasket failures, and melting sea ice are major factors that could bring countries into conflict with each other for territory and resources.

The climate crisis will be the root of conflict around the globe and as such it poses a direct threat to the continuance of civilization. Some conflicts will become too important, like “do-or-die” situations, and the end result of such will be nuclear war. That is always a last resort, of course, but that is what happens when things become desperate. You exercise your only remaining option.

Climate change must, therefore, be taken very seriously as a major national, and indeed global, security issue that needs to be addressed by all nations.

This paper was intended to have exactly that effect. But, will anyone in power listen to the warnings? Can the major nations of the world actually agree on something, and then do it, before it is too late? I don’t know. I hope so, but I highly doubt it. So far, it looks like we are all going to continue on as we always have.

And that looks like the beginning of a worldwide wasteland to me.